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NEWS

Chemicals: Macroeconomic weakness in the fourth quarter, asset "bubble" facing burst

Time: 2020-06-04

In the first three quarters of the year, the overall domestic macro-economy performed well. Not only did it achieve the goal of a soft landing in the economy, but under the environment of continued implementation of stable monetary policies and structural adjustments, GDP growth rebounded slightly. The data shows that in August 2017, the added value of the above-scale industries increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and from January to August, the added value of the above-scale industries increased by 6.7% year-on-year. On the whole, the growth rate of production in high-energy-consuming manufacturing industries has continued to decline, but high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained rapid growth rates, and related investments have also accelerated into emerging industries. The growth rate of Shuangchuang's investment continues to increase. With the industrial transformation and upgrading, China's economy has accelerated the conversion of old and new kinetic energy.

In the chemical industry, due to the comprehensive implementation of environmental protection inspection policies and the comprehensive clearing of backward production capacity, the boom of some industries has rebounded, and the demand in emerging fields has increased significantly, especially in the first half of the coal and steel industries. The rate and the center of gravity of the value have been continuously revised, and the profitability of the company has been continuously improved. The bull market created by black products as the representative in the first half of the year has caused a collective turnaround in the industry. In order to win a good situation, coupled with the destocking cycle support, the company's operating conditions have been able to Overall improvement.

However, entering the traditional peak season of the gold, silver and silver chemical industry, the market trend was unsatisfactory. As there was no obvious bright spot in the growth of domestic demand, and the environmental protection policy storm was flattened, the operating rate of some industries gradually rebounded or even stayed at the highest level in the past years, but the actual consumption did not appear to be significant. There are signs of growth, so black products bear the brunt of the sharp dive, but the industry's operating rate is still high, and it is likely to enter the destocking cycle again. Therefore, the overheating of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, and it is not conducive to the clearing of backward production capacity, and it is likely to cause the results of the supply-side structural adjustment stage to fall short. Therefore, the chemical industry as a whole is in the "cooling down" phase in the second half of the year, and the false high bubbles generated by various "conceptualized" speculations will be digested by the market itself.

From the perspective of the external environment, the U.S. contraction forecast is expected to continue to increase, but the actual economic recovery momentum is still weak, and the risk of shock to emerging economies remains. Europe and other major foreign trade areas face exits from the monetary easing cycle. The global spread will continue to put pressure on the domestic export situation, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to decline.

It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to run at the bottom of the L-shape, and emerging fields are not enough to support effective demand to occupy a major proportion. The imbalance in the traditional field structure is difficult to effectively reverse in the short term. The specific industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial value-added data and it is likely that there will be a weak situation. In the absence of new kinetic energy and bright spots of consumption growth, the investment growth rate of the chemical industry will continue to decline and is likely to continue negative growth. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the focus of the chemical product market will drop to seek bottom support. It is likely to continue to be led by the black system. Moreover, it is expected that the overall destocking cycle will be relatively lengthened, the enterprise benefits in the industry are expected to decline periodically, and the price bubbles and falsely high profit margins in some industries will return rationally and be effectively compressed.

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